Five-Year Forecast Feedback
In late May, sponsors were required to submit five-year forecasts on behalf of their schools using the template provided by the Department. The Department now is utilizing a new review process to provide feedback on the forecasts. You will receive an email with feedback for each of your schools from your assigned consultant from the Office of Community Schools. The vast majority of five-year forecasts are being returned to address specific areas. We ask that forecasts are updated on the May 2018 template (available here) and resubmitted in Epicenter by Friday, Sept. 14. To facilitate this, the submission will be returned and the submission type deadline for any school that we are requesting a resubmission. We also will provide specific feedback on the notes in Epicenter.
Some general things to consider with the five-year forecasts — the five-year forecast is the school’s revenue and expenditure projections and not those of the management company or operator. Salaries and benefits for staff only should be recorded in the forecast if personnel are employed by the school’s governing authority. Salaries and benefits paid by a management company or operator should be included in the forecast as part of the purchase service total and detailed in the purchase service portion of the forecast assumptions.
To assist you with resubmission, we are providing some additional detail on our comments:
- ‘Assumptions narrative insufficient’ – Robust and detailed assumptions allow anyone reviewing the forecast to understand the rationale behind forecasted revenues and expenditures. Assumptions should include how forecasted revenues and expenditures were determined and the basis for those decisions. Forecasted figures should be consistent with assumptions.
- ‘Purchased service and/or enrollment detail incomplete’ – All portions of the forecast template, both actual and forecasted figures, for purchased services and enrollment must be complete. If actual purchased service figures are not available due to a change in operator, include that explanation in the assumptions narrative.
- ‘Confirm debt status’ – All debt should be detailed in the debt chart included in the template. If there is no debt, confirm the school has no debt in the assumptions narrative. Please include names (not just abbreviations) of creditors/debt holders in the assumptions narrative.
- ‘Purchased service totals inconsistent’ – The total projected purchased services for each fiscal year should equal the total of all purchased services detailed in the assumptions portion of the forecast template.
- ‘Provide facilities lease and independent review if applicable’ – Schools leasing facilities from a management company or sponsor should have an independent review to confirm the lease is at market value.
- Salary and benefits expenditures for staff employed by a management company, operator or fiscal agent (entity other than the school itself) are recorded as purchased services.
- Student enrollment and revenue attributed to the 22+ program are not recorded as foundation revenue or included in student FTE. Please record revenue in ‘Other’ operating receipts. Include an explanation of projected 22+ enrollment and revenue in the assumptions narrative.
We understand this feedback comes as you are opening schools for the 2018-2019 school year, however, we must stress the importance of accurate five-year forecasts. There are several offices within the Department and other agencies that utilize the information on the forecasts. We want to ensure the forecasts for schools are as accurate as possible.
To assist you with the resubmission, we have scheduled a Skype for Business conference call at noon on Tuesday, Aug. 7 If there are questions, please submit them to Community.Schools@education.ohio.gov.
Karl J. Koenig
Office of Community Schools
25 South Front Street | Columbus, Ohio 43215-4183
(614) 387-2197 (Direct) | (877) 644-6338 | (614) 466-7058
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